Online sports betting has been a cash cow for states across the U.S., but the largest state in America appears poised to pass on bringing regulated sports betting within its borders.
Despite a pair of voting measures on the ballot that would legalize regulated sports betting within California, residents in the Golden State are set to vote against Props 26 and 27 in the upcoming midterm elections.
This is according to polling done by the California-Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies.
Prop 26, which if passed would legalize sports betting and casino gaming on California tribal lands and at casinos, polled at about 31 percent with 42 percent opposed among about 7,000 likely voters. Prop 27, which would pass online sports betting regardless of where wagers were placed, was even worse, polling at about 27 percent with more than 53 percent opposed among the same sample.
There are many factors that have contributed to each prop’s glaring unpopularity, but most notable is the aggressive ad campaign aimed at eroding public support. Prospective voters, especially in Southern California, have been inundated with commercials that have cited the potential for gambling addiction among youth and how Prop 27, backed by FanDuel and DraftKings, would sap money from native people and take it out of state.
Plus, having dueling measures on the ballot has created both confusion and mistrust, especially since the majority of California’s tribes back Prop 26 but only three support Prop 27.
Negative Ad Campaigns and Tribal Disputes Drive Opposition
“I think it’s the negative advertisements that have kind of been turning voters away,” Berkeley IGS poll director Mark DiCamillo told the Los Angeles Times. “People who haven’t seen the ads are about evenly divided, but people who’ve seen a lot of ads are against it. The advertising is not helping.”
Prop 26 would produce a 10 percent tax on all profits brought into the tribal gaming houses, with proceeds going to the state as well as support for homelessness and gambling addiction treatment and education programs.
Prop 27, which would allow online sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel to operate, would require those companies to pay $100 million to the state for a license. Or they could partner with a native tribe, since under the proposition tribes could offer online sports betting for just $10 million.
Backers of Prop 27 have spent more than $400 million in trying to get the measure passed, since California is by far the biggest U.S. state that does not offer sports betting. New York, which launched online sports betting in January, is currently the largest state that offers regulated online betting – with a population of about 20 million – but California is twice as large, population-wise.
What’s Next for Sports Betting in California?
Still, even though both measures appear doomed, backers of Prop 26 are celebrating the demise of online sports betting, citing DraftKings and FanDuel’s lack of commitment to California.
“Voters appear to be rejecting the out-of-state gambling corporations and their $170 million campaign of deception,” Kathy Fairbanks, spokesperson for Yes on 26/No on 27 campaign told Los Angeles Times.
But the volume of negative ads has also led to finger pointing, especially from Prop 27 backers since they lay blame at the negative ads that have cratered public support for online sports betting.
“Prop 27 has taken over $100 million in misleading and false attacks – $45 million before we even qualified for the ballot,” Nathan Click, spokesperson for that ad, told the LA Times. “It’s telling these same opponents funding these ads haven’t spent a dime supporting their own sports-betting proposal, 26.”