Esports prediction markets on Kalshi: Breaking down the $36M by game

Earlier this week, we published our initial piece looking at the headline figures from 1-7 June on prediction market operator Kalshi. This piece dives deeper, looking at the games that generated most interest; which games saw the most money and why.

We’ve taken the ten largest Counter-Strike, Valorant, Dota 2 and League of Legends matches traded and looked at some of the key fixtures to see just what makes a match attract more volume.

Every match in the CS2 top ten this week was part of the ongoing IEM Cologne Major 2026, one of the year’s largest Counter-Strike events. Naturally, with everything betting-related, large events draw larger crowds and, as such, see increased betting/trading activity. The activity on Kalshi proves no exception. And discussed in our previous piece, a Counter-Strike audience is familiar with gambling, and across all data made public by suppliers and operators historically, has been the top handle generator.

The most-traded match of the entire week was BIG versus NRG, at $1.44 million. The match went to three maps, with BIG edging NRG 2-1 (13-5, 12-16, 16-12). The other two matches that saw over $1,000,000 in trading were both B8 matches. The M80 vs B8 match ended 2-0, but the second map went to overtime and it looked for a minute that M80 might make a comeback (it finished 22-20 to B8).

The broad pattern clearly identifiable from the data is that close matches (that go on for longer, with more swings) result in higher trading volume. By contrast, one-sided matches (eg BIG versus Gaimin which saw BIG win a map 13-1) barely tickle the sides.

There could be debate over whether this is actually fans trading positions, or whether bots that trade the inherent esports data delay are mopping up – and this is a theme we’ll explore in future pieces. What’s clear from our first data pull is that volume follows both the tournament prestige, and the tension within it.

League of Legends generated $8.7 million across 116 matches this week, drawing volume from multiple international leagues. Unlike CS2, which was concentrated in one tournament, LoL volume was spread across the LEC (Europe), LCK (Korea), LPL (China), and smaller regional circuits.

The biggest match was Karmine Corp vs. G2 Esports at $1.02 million — the only LoL market to pass seven figures this week. Both are prominent LEC organisations with large followings, and matches between them tend to draw strong viewership and wider attention.

The LCK contributed the second-biggest match: Dplus KIA vs. KT Rolster at $867K. Korean league fixtures have historically attracted strong Kalshi volume and this match was no exception.

One notable entry is CCG Esports vs. Winthrop University at $573K in the NACL Spring Lower Bracket finals. These are two names that are not top-tier international organizations, but two keys that we’ve previously identified in Counter-Strike trading were also in play here. The match had a lot on the line, being a Lower Bracket final, and went to five maps, with CCG eventually emerging victorious 3-2.

Valorant generated $2.1 million from just 13 matches this week. The top two markets alone accounted for over a third of all Valorant volume, reflecting how concentrated interest can be around a small number of high-profile fixtures.

The biggest market was NRG vs. LOUD at $417K, which saw NRG come out victorious. LOUD command one of the largest Valorant fanbases in North America, and despite a 3-0 romp in the ESWC Lower Bracket finals, it took the most in trading volume.

NRG vs. XLG Gaming ($233K) also featured in the top 10 and the NRG’s academy attracted significant interest versus SaD esports, in a group stage game which SaD took 2-1.

Dota 2 generated $1.53 million across 11 matches. Pretty much all of the matches were from the BLAST Slam VII, in which Team Yandex scored upset after upset to come out victorious.

The game that attracted volume was an incredible lower-bracket series between Chinese powerhouse LGD Gaming and Aurora. The match was just a best of three, but panned out perfectly for swings and a good live-trading event. Aurora took the first map in 50 minutes, before LGD levelled the series.

The final game was a mammoth 110 minute affair, with the game being closely contested and Aurora (Radiant – green color above), edging the first 80 minutes or so. It was only later that LGD managed to snag a lead and eventually close out the game, and the series.

Again, this fits the pattern of a match with a lot of trading potential. A lengthy, close series, with plenty of twists and a mammoth deciding game saw the price for LGD Gaming to win dip as low as 20c, with plenty of spikes above and below the 50 mark as the final game progressed.

With The International coming up soon, it’ll be interesting to see what volume is traded on Kalshi. The event takes place in China, which may mean that it’s far from ideal trading hours for those in the West.